Terra Politica Terra Politica Terra Politica 3033-537X 3033-7321 112025 10.63115/1632.2025.27.58.012 QVJKQD AD HOC AD HOC AD HOC APPLYING NETWORK MODELS FOR ANALYSIS TO SPATIAL ANALYSIS OF GERRYMANDERING PRACTICES IN THE 2000-2020 U.S. CONGRESSIONAL ELECTIONS Опыт применения сетевых моделей для анализа для пространственного анализа практик джерримендеринга на выборах в Конгресс США в 2000–2020 гг. Глумов Филипп Владиславович Glumov Filipp Vladislavovich Мальцев Артём Михайлович Mal'cev Artem Mihaylovich 01 07 2025 01 07 2025 1 167 188 01 03 2025 01 06 2025 https://terrapolitica.ru/en/nauka/article/112025/view

Настоящее исследование посвящено явлению джерримендеринга на примере выборов в Конгресс США. Для анализа были использованы границы избирательных округов в Конгресс США. Деление штатов на округа было основано на данных переписей, проводившихся с 2000 по 2020 годы. Данные о малых административных единицах (графствах) аналогично опираются на данные переписи. В статье теоретизируются перспективы применения методов инферентного сетевого анализа для изучения пространственных данных распределения территорий графств штатов между избирательными округами. Так, в частности, методы статистических моделей, основанных на экспоненциальных случайных графах (Exponential Random Graph Model, ERGM), могут быть адаптированы оценки закономерностей объединения или перераспределения отдельных графств между едиными избирательными округами. Такие модели позволяют идентифицировать статистически значимые эффекты факторов электоральной инженерии в виде стратегической манипуляции границами избирательных округов («ручной отрисовки»), при которой объединение графств осуществляется не на основе географической близости населенных районов, но продиктовано специфическими социо-демографическими и политическими характеристиками отдельных графств. Применение сетевого анализа обуславливается «диадной» структурой пространственных данных, при которых отдельные наблюдения (графства) объединяются парными связями общей принадлежности к избирательным округам, что, в свою очередь, приводит к формированию сетевого графа аффилиации (affiliation network). Указанный метод, потенциально, позволяет описать механизм перераспределения малых электоральных единиц в рамках избирательных округов. Исследователями были проверены гипотезы о социально-политических факторах, оказывающих влияние на устройство данного механизма: рассмотрена роль партийных интересов, а также роль подавления и защиты расовых меньшинств как важных факторов, формирующих американский политический дискурс. Результаты сетевого анализа демонстрируют значимость социо-демографических предикторов, что подтверждает наличие взаимосвязи между расо вым составом населения графств и геопространственной нарезкой избирательных округов. Эффекты для любого фактора являются неоднородными в рамках страны, демонстрируя существенно различные результаты между штатами. Полученные оценки не позволяют сделать однозначного вывода о выдвинутых гипотезах, так как группы штатов, где проявляются те или иные признаки не всегда подлежат осмысленному обобщению. Полученные результаты в целом иллюстрируют эвристический потенциал адаптации методологии сетевого анализа для решения теоретических задач политической географии.

The present study is devoted to the phenomenon of gerrymandering on the example of US Congressional elections. The boundaries of US Congressional electoral districts were used for the analysis. The division of states into districts was based on census data from 2000 to 2020. Data on small administrative units (counties) similarly relied on census data. This article theorizes the prospects of applying inferential network analysis methods to study spatial data of state county area distributions among electoral districts. In particular, methods of statistical models based on Exponential Random Graph Model (ERGM) can be adapted to assess patterns of aggregation or redistribution of individual counties between single electoral districts. Such models allow identifying statistically significant effects of electoral engineering factors in the form of strategic manipulation of constituency boundaries (“hand-drawing”), whereby the unification of counties is not based on the geographical proximity of populated areas, but is dictated by the specific socio-demographic and political characteristics of individual counties. The use of network analysis is conditioned by the “dyad” structure of spatial data, in which individual observations (counties) are united by pairwise ties of common affiliation to constituencies, which in turn leads to the formation of an affiliation network graph. This method potentially allows describing the mechanism of redistribution of small electoral units within constituencies. The researchers tested hypotheses about the socio-political factors that influence this mechanism - the role of partisan interests, as well as the role of suppression and protection of racial minorities as important factors shaping American political discourse. The results of the network analysis demonstrate the significance of socio-demographic predictors, confirming the relationship between the racial composition of county populations and the geospatial slicing of electoral districts. The effects for any factor are not homogeneous within the country, showing significantly different results between states. The resulting estimates do not allow for a clear conclusion about the hypotheses, as the groups of states where particular attributes are evident are not always subject to meaningful eneralization. The results generally illustrate the euristic potential of adapting the methodology of network analysis to solve theoretical problems of political geography.

 сетевой анализ джерримендеринг электоральная география США выборы network analysis gerrymandering electoral geography USA elections

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